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New study aims to predict repeat disc herniations before surgery

NCT ID NCT04254250

Completed Knowledge-focused Sponsor: Novosibirsk Research Institute of Traumatology and Orthopaedics n.a. Ya.L. Tsivyan Source: ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

First seen Jun 27, 2026 · Last updated Jun 27, 2026

Summary

This study followed 386 people who had surgery for a slipped disc in the lower back. Before surgery, doctors used a mathematical model to estimate each patient's risk of the disc herniating again. After standard microdiscectomy, patients were checked every 6 months for 3 years to see if the disc came back. The goal was to see if the risk estimate could accurately predict reherniation.

What this could mean

Our plain-language read of the trial. This is informational only — not medical advice or a prediction.

What this could lead to
If successful, this could help surgeons identify patients at high risk of reherniation before surgery, potentially guiding treatment decisions.
What could go wrong
This is an observational study, not a treatment trial. It only estimates risk and does not test a new therapy, so direct patient benefit is uncertain.

This is an AI summary of the original study and may miss details. Read our disclaimer.

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Conditions

The condition(s) this trial relates to.

Intervertebral Disc Displacement lumbar disk herniation, susceptibility to

As listed by the trial registrant

The condition terms exactly as the trial's registrant entered them.

INTERVERTEBRAL DISC HERNIATION

Contacts and locations

Locations

  • Novosibirsk Research Institute of Traumatology and Orthopaedics n.a. Ya.L. Tsivyan

    Novosibirsk, 630091, Russia

  • Priorov National Medical Research Center of Traumatology and Orthopedics

    Moscow, 127299, Russia

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