New risk score aims to predict multiple sclerosis before symptoms start
NCT ID NCT01617395
First seen Jun 27, 2026 · Last updated Aug 07, 2026 · Updated 5 times
Summary
This study tested a new risk score that combines genetic and environmental factors to predict multiple sclerosis (MS). Researchers studied 181 people, including MS patients and their close relatives. The goal was to see if this score could identify who might develop MS in the future. This is an early step toward better prediction, not a treatment or cure.
What this could mean
Our plain-language read of the trial. This is informational only, not medical advice or a prediction.
- What this could lead to
- If successful, this risk score could help identify people at high risk for MS before symptoms appear, allowing for earlier monitoring or preventive strategies.
- What could go wrong
- This is an observational study, not a treatment trial. The risk score is still experimental and may not accurately predict MS in the general population.
This is an AI summary of the original study and may miss details. Read our disclaimer.
Study facts
What this study's own registry entry says, in plain language.
- Participants
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181 people
The number who actually took part.
- Started
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Aug 2012
- Lead sponsor
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A government research agency
The lead sponsor is the US National Institutes of Health.
Who can take part
This study's own entry requirements. Only the study team can say for certain whether you qualify.
Who is studied
Primary clinical
- Ages
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18 years and older
- Sex
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Anyone
- Healthy volunteers
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Not accepted
This study is not open to healthy volunteers. The entry requirements below say who it is open to.
Show the full entry requirements Hide the full entry requirements
Copied word for word from the study's registry entry, so the wording is the study team's rather than ours.
* INCLUSION CRITERIA: GEMS cohort (target n equals 1000) * First-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) of a self-reported MS patient. * Age 18-50, inclusive, at the time of enrollment into the overall GEMS study. * Willingness to be contacted regarding additional follow-up procedures. * Cross-sectional subcohort (target n equal 150): * Referred by Columbia University Medical Center as having a genetic and environmental risk score (GERS), defined in Section 4.1.1, in the top or bottom 20% of the overall GEMS study. * NINDS Longitudinal subcohort (target n equal 100): * Ages 18-40, inclusive. * Referred by Columbia University Medical Center as having a GERS in the top 20% of the overall GEMS study. * Willing to undergo additional study procedures at the NIH for up to 20 years, with planned follow-up every year for participants between ages 18 and 25, every 2 years for participants between ages 26 and 30, and every 5 years for participants between ages 31 and 40. * Relative enrolled in NIH study with confirmation of MS diagnosis. MS patient cohort (target n=1000): * MS patients (NIH) * Co-enrolled in another Neuroimmunology Clinic natural history protocol. * Diagnosis confirmed at NIH. * Age 18 or older. * MS patient (non-NIH) * First-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) of an existing GEMS participant. * Able and willing to send medical records associated with their MS diagnosis to NIH. * Healthy volunteer cohort (target n=80) * Age 18-50, inclusive. * No known first-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) with MS. * All cohorts * Able to give informed consent. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: GEMS cohort -Diagnosis of MS. Cross-sectional and NINDS longitudinal subcohorts * Contraindications to MRI scanning. * Diagnosis of another central nervous system disease disease (CNS neoplasm, known cerebrovascular disease, known CNS degenerative diseases, or known CNS inflammatory diseases) at the time enrollment into the study. * MS cohort (both) --None * Healthy volunteer cohort * Diagnosis of MS or another central nervous system (CNS neoplasm, cerebrovascular disease CNS degenerative diseases, or CNS inflammatory diseases) or a systemic disease that would interfere with the aims of this study. * Contraindications to MRI scanning. Eligible NIH employees and staff may participate.
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Conditions
The condition(s) this trial relates to.
As listed by the trial registrant
The condition terms exactly as the trial's registrant entered them.
Contacts and locations
Locations
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National Institutes of Health Clinical Center
Bethesda, Maryland, 20892, United States
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