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New risk score aims to predict multiple sclerosis before symptoms start

NCT ID NCT01617395

What the study statuses mean

This study's is highlighted.

Recruitment status, easiest to join first

Recruiting now
This trial is taking on new participants right now.
Not yet recruiting
Registered, but not yet taking participants.
By invitation only
Not open to general applications. Only people the study team invites can take part.
Paused
Paused for now. It may or may not start again.
Ongoing
Running, but no longer taking on new participants.
Completed This study
The trial has finished. Results may not be published yet.
Stopped early
Stopped early, before it reached the end. That can be for many reasons, including safety.
Cancelled
Cancelled before anyone took part.

Expanded access (not trials)

Expanded access
Not a trial. This treatment can be requested outside a study, case by case, for people who qualify.
Expanded access (paused)
Not a trial. The treatment can normally be requested outside a study, but is unavailable right now.
Expanded access (ended)
Not a trial. The treatment could once be requested outside a study, but no longer can.
Approved
The treatment has been approved, so it is available normally rather than through this programme.

When the status isn't known

Details not published
The full record has not been published yet, so there is little to show here.
Status unknown
This status has not been confirmed recently, so it may be out of date.

First seen Jun 27, 2026 · Last updated Aug 07, 2026 · Updated 5 times

Summary

This study tested a new risk score that combines genetic and environmental factors to predict multiple sclerosis (MS). Researchers studied 181 people, including MS patients and their close relatives. The goal was to see if this score could identify who might develop MS in the future. This is an early step toward better prediction, not a treatment or cure.

What this could mean

Our plain-language read of the trial. This is informational only, not medical advice or a prediction.

What this could lead to
If successful, this risk score could help identify people at high risk for MS before symptoms appear, allowing for earlier monitoring or preventive strategies.
What could go wrong
This is an observational study, not a treatment trial. The risk score is still experimental and may not accurately predict MS in the general population.

This is an AI summary of the original study and may miss details. Read our disclaimer.

Study facts

What this study's own registry entry says, in plain language.

Participants

181 people

The number who actually took part.

Started

Aug 2012

Lead sponsor

A government research agency

The lead sponsor is the US National Institutes of Health.

Who can take part

This study's own entry requirements. Only the study team can say for certain whether you qualify.

Who is studied

Primary clinical

Ages

18 years and older

Sex

Anyone

Healthy volunteers

Not accepted

This study is not open to healthy volunteers. The entry requirements below say who it is open to.

Show the full entry requirements

Copied word for word from the study's registry entry, so the wording is the study team's rather than ours.

* INCLUSION CRITERIA: GEMS cohort (target n equals 1000) * First-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) of a self-reported MS patient. * Age 18-50, inclusive, at the time of enrollment into the overall GEMS study. * Willingness to be contacted regarding additional follow-up procedures. * Cross-sectional subcohort (target n equal 150): * Referred by Columbia University Medical Center as having a genetic and environmental risk score (GERS), defined in Section 4.1.1, in the top or bottom 20% of the overall GEMS study. * NINDS Longitudinal subcohort (target n equal 100): * Ages 18-40, inclusive. * Referred by Columbia University Medical Center as having a GERS in the top 20% of the overall GEMS study. * Willing to undergo additional study procedures at the NIH for up to 20 years, with planned follow-up every year for participants between ages 18 and 25, every 2 years for participants between ages 26 and 30, and every 5 years for participants between ages 31 and 40. * Relative enrolled in NIH study with confirmation of MS diagnosis. MS patient cohort (target n=1000): * MS patients (NIH) * Co-enrolled in another Neuroimmunology Clinic natural history protocol. * Diagnosis confirmed at NIH. * Age 18 or older. * MS patient (non-NIH) * First-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) of an existing GEMS participant. * Able and willing to send medical records associated with their MS diagnosis to NIH. * Healthy volunteer cohort (target n=80) * Age 18-50, inclusive. * No known first-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) with MS. * All cohorts * Able to give informed consent. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: GEMS cohort -Diagnosis of MS. Cross-sectional and NINDS longitudinal subcohorts * Contraindications to MRI scanning. * Diagnosis of another central nervous system disease disease (CNS neoplasm, known cerebrovascular disease, known CNS degenerative diseases, or known CNS inflammatory diseases) at the time enrollment into the study. * MS cohort (both) --None * Healthy volunteer cohort * Diagnosis of MS or another central nervous system (CNS neoplasm, cerebrovascular disease CNS degenerative diseases, or CNS inflammatory diseases) or a systemic disease that would interfere with the aims of this study. * Contraindications to MRI scanning. Eligible NIH employees and staff may participate.

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Conditions

The condition(s) this trial relates to.

As listed by the trial registrant

The condition terms exactly as the trial's registrant entered them.

Contacts and locations

Locations

  • National Institutes of Health Clinical Center

    Bethesda, Maryland, 20892, United States

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