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AI model aims to predict dangerous lung Flare-Ups in ABPA patients

NCT ID NCT07714863

Knowledge-focused Sponsor: Qianfoshan Hospital Source: ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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Recruiting now This study
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Registered, but not yet taking participants.
By invitation only
Not open to general applications. Only people the study team invites can take part.
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Paused for now. It may or may not start again.
Ongoing
Running, but no longer taking on new participants.
Completed
The trial has finished. Results may not be published yet.
Stopped early
Stopped early, before it reached the end. That can be for many reasons, including safety.
Cancelled
Cancelled before anyone took part.

Expanded access (not trials)

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Expanded access (ended)
Not a trial. The treatment could once be requested outside a study, but no longer can.
Approved
The treatment has been approved, so it is available normally rather than through this programme.

When the status isn't known

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First seen Jul 20, 2026 · Last updated Jul 21, 2026 · Updated 1 time

Summary

This study develops a machine learning model to predict the risk of acute exacerbation within one year in patients with allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA), a lung condition caused by allergic reactions to Aspergillus fungus. Researchers will analyze data from 200 stable-phase ABPA patients, using various clinical and lab features to build and validate 12 different models. The goal is to create a tool that helps doctors identify high-risk patients and make better treatment decisions.

What this could mean

Our plain-language read of the trial. This is informational only, not medical advice or a prediction.

What this could lead to
If successful, this model could help doctors identify ABPA patients at high risk of flare-ups, enabling earlier and more personalized treatment.
What could go wrong
The model is based on data from 200 patients and may not generalize to all populations. Machine learning predictions are not always accurate in real-world settings.

This is an AI summary of the original study and may miss details. Read our disclaimer.

Study facts

What this study's own registry entry says, in plain language.

Participants

About 200 people

The number the study aims to enrol. It can still change while the study runs.

Started

Jan 2021

Expected to finish

Dec 2028

An estimate. End dates often move.

Lead sponsor

Other sponsor

The registry's catch-all category, for sponsors it does not file as a company, a government agency, or a research network.

Who can take part

This study's own entry requirements. Only the study team can say for certain whether you qualify.

Who is studied

This study enrolled adult patients aged ≥ 18 years with a confirmed diagnosis of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) who met the 2024 ISHAM diagnostic criteria. Study subjects consisted of retrospectively identified cases extracted from the electronic medical records of participating hospitals, as well as prospectively recruited patients enrolled during the research period. Eligible patients were required to achieve disease stability following initial treatment and possess complete datasets covering clinical manifestations, chest imaging findings, laboratory test results, treatment regimens, and records of ABPA exacerbation events. All participants were stratified into an ABPA exacerbation group and a non-exacerbation group. Patients who failed to attain stable disease after initial treatment, lacked core clinical data, or were lost to follow-up were excluded from the analysis.

Ages

18 years and older

Sex

Anyone

Healthy volunteers

Not accepted

This study is not open to healthy volunteers. The entry requirements below say who it is open to.

Show the full entry requirements

Copied word for word from the study's registry entry, so the wording is the study team's rather than ours.

Inclusion Criteria: 1. Aged between 18 and 80 years old. 2. Consistent with the diagnostic consensus criteria for ABPA proposed by the ISHAM-ABPA Working Group. 3. Patients in stable phase of ABPA: newly diagnosed treatment-naive patients or those with prior ABPA exacerbation who achieved at least 50% improvement in symptoms assessed by Likert scale or visual analogue scale (VAS) following initial therapy, accompanied by marked radiological improvement (≥50% reduction in pulmonary opacities) or a minimum 20% decline in serum total IgE level. Exclusion Criteria: 1. Concurrent malignant tumors or severe organ dysfunction involving the heart, brain, kidney and other vital organs. 2. Complicated with severe underlying diseases, including active pulmonary tuberculosis, lung cancer, chronic heart failure (NYHA class Ⅳ), chronic kidney disease stage 5 (CKD 5), decompensated liver cirrhosis, etc. 3. Immunocompromised status, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, long-term oral administration of glucocorticoids or immunosuppressive agents. 4. Pregnant or breastfeeding women. 5. Patients with missing core clinical data or incomplete medical records.

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Conditions

The condition(s) this trial relates to.

allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis

As listed by the trial registrant

The condition terms exactly as the trial's registrant entered them.

ABPA Acute exacerbation Allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis Allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) Machine learning

How to take part

Only the study team decides who joins. These are the ways to reach them.

  1. The places running it

    1 site. The list below names each one and where it is.

  2. The official record

    ClinicalTrials.gov lists the study team's own contact details, including names and phone numbers. We don't republish those.

    Open the record ↗

  3. A doctor treating you

    A doctor who knows your case can contact a study site on your behalf, and can tell you whether this study is worth pursuing at all.

Contacts and locations

Locations

  • Department of Respiratory, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, #16766, Jingshi Road, Jinan City, Shandong Province, China

    RECRUITING

    Jinan, Shandong, 250014, China

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