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Can a simple model predict who will survive surgery? study of 640,000 patients says maybe.

NCT ID NCT07188636

Knowledge-focused Sponsor: Asan Medical Center Source: ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

What the study statuses mean

This study's is highlighted.

Recruitment status, easiest to join first

Recruiting now
This trial is taking on new participants right now.
Not yet recruiting
Registered, but not yet taking participants.
By invitation only
Not open to general applications. Only people the study team invites can take part.
Paused
Paused for now. It may or may not start again.
Ongoing
Running, but no longer taking on new participants.
Completed This study
The trial has finished. Results may not be published yet.
Stopped early
Stopped early, before it reached the end. That can be for many reasons, including safety.
Cancelled
Cancelled before anyone took part.

Expanded access (not trials)

Expanded access
Not a trial. This treatment can be requested outside a study, case by case, for people who qualify.
Expanded access (paused)
Not a trial. The treatment can normally be requested outside a study, but is unavailable right now.
Expanded access (ended)
Not a trial. The treatment could once be requested outside a study, but no longer can.
Approved
The treatment has been approved, so it is available normally rather than through this programme.

When the status isn't known

Details not published
The full record has not been published yet, so there is little to show here.
Status unknown
This status has not been confirmed recently, so it may be out of date.

First seen Jun 26, 2026 · Last updated Jun 26, 2026 · Updated 1 time

Summary

Researchers analyzed data from over 640,000 adults who had non-cardiac surgery to create a model that predicts the chance of dying within 30 days, 180 days, and one year after surgery. The model uses information from hospital records and national death registries. This study is complete and aims to give doctors a simple tool to identify high-risk patients.

What this could mean

Our plain-language read of the trial. This is informational only, not medical advice or a prediction.

What this could lead to
If successful, this model could help doctors better identify patients at high risk of dying after surgery, potentially improving care and saving lives.
What could go wrong
This is a retrospective study, so the model may not work as well in new groups of patients. It only predicts risk, it does not prevent deaths.

This is an AI summary of the original study and may miss details. Read our disclaimer.

Study facts

What this study's own registry entry says, in plain language.

Participants

642,377 people

The number who actually took part.

Started

Jul 2024

Finished

Jan 2025

Lead sponsor

Other sponsor

The registry's catch-all category, for sponsors it does not file as a company, a government agency, or a research network.

Who can take part

This study's own entry requirements. Only the study team can say for certain whether you qualify.

Who is studied

Adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery at three tertiary hospitals in South Korea (Asan Medical Center, Seoul National University Hospital, and Samsung Medical Center). Patients with preoperative severe renal dysfunction, kidney transplantation, or missing key variables were excluded. A total of 642,377 patients were included for model development and validation.

Ages

18 years and older

Sex

Anyone

Show the full entry requirements

Copied word for word from the study's registry entry, so the wording is the study team's rather than ours.

Inclusion Criteria: * Patients aged 18 years or older who underwent non-cardiac surgery Exclusion Criteria: * Patients who underwent obstetric surgeries * Transplant donors and recipients * Patients with incomplete data or missing laboratory values

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As listed by the trial registrant

The condition terms exactly as the trial's registrant entered them.

Mortality prediction

Contacts and locations

Locations

  • Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine

    Seoul, 05505, South Korea

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