Can a new calculator better predict breast cancer return?
NCT ID NCT07484763
First seen Jun 27, 2026 · Last updated Jun 27, 2026
Summary
This study aims to create a simple tool (called a nomogram) that predicts the chance of breast cancer coming back in women with HR+/HER2- early-stage breast cancer. Researchers will look back at the records of 500 patients to find patterns that help personalize risk estimates. The goal is to improve on current methods that may over- or under-treat some patients.
What this could mean
Our plain-language read of the trial. This is informational only, not medical advice or a prediction.
- What this could lead to
- If successful, this could give doctors a more accurate way to estimate a patient's personal risk of breast cancer returning, helping tailor treatment decisions.
- What could go wrong
- This is a small, single-center retrospective study, so the tool may not work well for all patients. It only looks back at past data, so it cannot prove the tool improves outcomes.
This is an AI summary of the original study and may miss details. Read our disclaimer.
Study facts
What this study's own registry entry says, in plain language.
- Participants
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About 500 people
The number the study aims to enrol. It can still change while the study runs.
- Expected to start
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Apr 2026
An estimate. Start dates often move.
- Expected to finish
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Apr 2027
An estimate. End dates often move.
- Lead sponsor
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Other sponsor
The registry's catch-all category, for sponsors it does not file as a company, a government agency, or a research network.
Who can take part
This study's own entry requirements. Only the study team can say for certain whether you qualify.
Who is studied
We retrospectively collected data from patients with primary breast cancer who underwent surgical treatment at our center between July 2014 and June 2024.
- Ages
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18 years and older
- Sex
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Female participants only
- Healthy volunteers
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Not accepted
This study is not open to healthy volunteers. The entry requirements below say who it is open to.
Show the full entry requirements Hide the full entry requirements
Copied word for word from the study's registry entry, so the wording is the study team's rather than ours.
Inclusion Criteria: * Histopathologically confirmed invasive breast ductal carcinoma or lobular carcinoma; * Molecular subtype of HR+/HER2- (ER ≥ 10%, and HER2 immunohistochemistry 0/1+ or 2+ without amplification confirmed by FISH); * Received standardized surgical treatment and postoperative adjuvant (or preoperative neoadjuvant) endocrine therapy; * Complete follow-up data available. Exclusion Criteria: * Presence of distant metastasis (Stage IV) at diagnosis * Male breast cancer * Missing key clinicopathological data or loss to follow-up * HER2 immunohistochemistry 3+ or 2+ with amplification confirmed by FISH * Triple-negative breast cancer
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Conditions
The condition(s) this trial relates to.
As listed by the trial registrant
The condition terms exactly as the trial's registrant entered them.
How to take part
Only the study team decides who joins. These are the ways to reach them.
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The official record
The full official record for this study. This one lists no contact details, but it is the first place any would appear.
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A doctor treating you
A doctor who knows your case can contact a study site on your behalf, and can tell you whether this study is worth pursuing at all.